In 2020, Uganda’s tourism sector was essentially on life support. International arrivals had collapsed to 473,085, less than a third of the 1.5 million visitors who had come in 2019. Hotel rooms sat empty, with an average occupancy rate of just 20.1%. The sector’s contribution to GDP had fallen to 2.7%, or roughly Shs 3.9 trillion. For a country that had staked part of its development future on becoming a premier African destination, the numbers were sobering.
By 2024, international arrivals had climbed back to 1,371,895, equivalent to 89.2% of pre-pandemic levels. Hotel occupancy had nearly tripled, reaching 53.2%. Tourism’s share of GDP had risen to 6.6%, contributing Shs 12 trillion to the national economy. And perhaps most strikingly, domestic tourism had not merely recovered it had blown past pre-COVID benchmarks entirely, with 2.8 million Ugandans visiting tourist sites in 2023, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of 2.42 million by 15.5%. The sector now employs 803,691 people directly along the tourism value chain, up from 573,508 in 2021, representing 7.2% of Uganda’s total population.
The recovery was no accident. Targeted marketing campaigns, the launch of Uganda Airlines, the expansion of Entebbe International Airport (now hosting 16 airlines), and the government-backed “Explore the Pearl of Africa” initiative all played a role. International media followed: CNN, National Geographic, the New York Times, and Lonely Planet all featured Uganda as a top destination, and the country was voted the “Most Desirable Country in the Rest of the World” at the Wanderlust Travel Awards 2024.
But look behind the headline numbers, and a more uncomfortable picture emerges, one that Uganda’s new five-year Strategic Plan (FY 2025/26–2029/30) confronts with unusual directness.
During the previous plan period, the Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities (MTWA) was supposed to operate with a budget of Shs 1.2 trillion. It received Shs 221 billion, roughly 18 cents on every planned shilling. Of the four flagship projects underway by June 2024, not one had crossed the 60% completion mark. The Source of the Nile redevelopment, a project with real potential to become a world-class attraction, sat at 55% physical progress after years of work, stalled by land acquisition delays and scope changes. The Mt. Rwenzori Tourism Infrastructure Project, where engineers have been working at altitudes of up to 4,600 metres, managed only 42% completion after having just 24% of its planned funding released in its first three years.
“The underfunding of the previous MTWA strategic plan, where only about 20% of the planned funding was realized, limited the execution of several interventions,” the new Strategic Plan states plainly a line that doubles as both an explanation and a warning about what happens if the pattern repeats.
The ambitions for the next five years are significant. Uganda wants to quadruple its tourism foreign exchange earnings from USD 1.025 billion to USD 4 billion. It wants to push the average tourist’s length of stay from 7.6 nights to 10, and increase per-tourist leisure spending from USD 1,550 to USD 2,500. These are not incremental targets. They reflect a government that has read the global opportunity, the worldwide travel and tourism industry was valued at USD 9.5 trillion in 2023, and decided Uganda should claim a larger share of it.
The total estimated cost of the new Strategic Plan over five years is Shs 1,341.1 billion. The annual budget is expected to rise from Shs 109.3 billion in year one to Shs 456.3 billion by year five. More than 35% of the development budget, Shs 475.356 billion, is expected to come from non-state actors: development partners, the private sector, and civil society.
The government is also counting on new funding mechanisms, including a Tourism Development Levy, a Tourism Development Fund, and expanded public-private partnerships, to close what the plan frankly describes as a persistent financing gap.
Whether those mechanisms materialize in time will matter enormously. Uganda has achieved something genuinely remarkable in its post-COVID recovery, and the data backs that up. But the country has also demonstrated, across a full five-year plan cycle, what happens when ambition outpaces funding: projects half-built, products underdeveloped, and a sector that performs well below its potential simply because the money didn’t show up.
The infrastructure gaps are real and measurable. Approximately 2,300 kilometres of identified tourism roads still await tarmacking, and several regional airports remain undeveloped. With AFCON on the horizon and a government that has identified tourism as one of its five pillars for tenfold economic growth, Uganda has the strategy, the recognition, and the momentum. What it needs now is the money to match.