East African skies are open, but the politics on the ground are clipping the wings of regional airlines—turning promising flight paths into costly detours, empty terminals, and a slow-motion grounding of the region’s aviation dreams.
Take RwandAir. In February, Rwanda’s flag carrier was banned from DR Congo airspace over the conflict in eastern DRC. RwandAir had to suspend flights to Abuja, Nigeria; Brazaville, Congo; and Cotonou, Benin. The three are routes that a reputable airline like RwandAir needs to keep afloat in an industry that thrives on small margins.
RwandAir did not respond to an update request by The Independent on the disruptions but in May, RwandAir CEO Yvonne Makolo said the airline was eyeing new routes to mitigate the disruption. Speaking at the 13th Aviation Stakeholders Convention in Kigali, Makolo was reported saying the airline was eyeing new routes to Mombasa and Zanzibar.
For these new routes to have some degree of financial viability, RwandAir has to pick up passengers from Entebbe Airport to fill its flights to the two coastal cities.
This means that RwandAir is in competition with Uganda Airlines for a small but significant share of travellers in the popular tourist destinations. In short, RwandAir is picking up crumbs on routes where UR has three weekly flights.
This geo-political disruption started months ago and is attributed to the perpetual fighting in eastern DRC. In July, Volker Turk, UN high commissioner for human rights, said Rwanda-backed M23 rebels killed 319 civilians. Due to this carnage, DRC is not about to be opened up to any Rwanda-registered aircraft.
But for Uganda Airlines, there’s an even more troubling reality. Since it ventured into the skies, Uganda Airlines is not permitted by the Ugandan government to fly to Kigali. The decision is attributed to the diplomatic fallout between the two countries that peaked in 2019 when Rwanda shut its border to Uganda.
That is the same year the national airline was relaunched. Before Uganda Airlines took to the skies again, Uganda had long denied RwandAir fifth freedom rights to pick up passengers from Entebbe en route to the U.K.
The Ugandan government forked out Shs129billion to revive Uganda Airlines but six years down the road, the Crane livery is yet to be spotted at the Kigali International Airport. Uganda Airlines flies to all neighbouring countries except Rwanda.
In an industry where airlines aim at maximum gain, experts say the decision reeks of strategic shortsightedness. The anomaly means that Uganda Airlines cannot have a codeshare with RwandAir.
Sudan chokepoint
But geopolitics is not just choking the smaller airlines but also the bigger players; Kenya and Ethiopia Airways. The civil war in Sudan resulted in airspace closures which translated into longer detours reflected in ticket price upswings.
Normally, KQ’s Europe flights would use a relatively direct corridor over South Sudan and Sudan. With Sudan closed, flightradar24 showed a KQ flightpath from Nairobi to Amsterdam on Aug. 14 that loops west over Uganda, DRC, C.A.R., Chad, Niger, Algeria and then finally onto Europe—a long, fuel-guzzling detour that bleeds millions from the airline’s bottom line. Uganda Airlines follows the same path for its Entebbe-London flight.
The detour has also caused cargo headaches for KQ. Kenya is renowned as a leading exporter of flower and fresh produce to Europe. Longer flights risk product freshness and require more cold-chain logistics at an extra cost.
Many of these cargo flights feed straight into early-morning flower auctions in Amsterdam or direct-to-store logistics. Missing an auction slot because of a late flight means the prized roses might end up sold at a discount, if at all they are sold.
But this hiccup is said to have handed an advantage to ET since it does not have as lengthy a detour and in effect, beating its Kenyan rival on cargo delivery. In addition, ET has an ambitious expansion strategy where it is in the process of establishing and operating a national carrier for South Sudan.
Ethiopian Airlines, in partnership with the African Development Bank (AfDB), is building a new airport called Bishoftu International Airport, projected to be the largest in Africa. The $7.8 billion project is tipped to significantly increase Ethiopia’s aviation capacity, aiming to handle over 100 million passengers annually according to news reports.
KQ however recently added an additional route to London via Gatwick airport as a sign of its resilience. The airline however faces an array of geopolitical chokepoints starting at home and extending to Tanzania.
President William Ruto’s high-profile embrace of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces is the kind of political turbulence that KQ can’t just fly above. By openly hosting RSF leaders in Nairobi and backing a parallel Sudanese government, Ruto has dragged Kenya into a bitter regional feud, provoking Khartoum’s fury and alienating powerful states like Saudi Arabia which have shown support for Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). BBC reported that Sudan banned all Kenyan imports after Ruto’s recognition of RSF.
For KQ, Sudanese airspace has historically been a critical northbound corridor for flights to Europe and North Africa; if Khartoum retaliates with flight bans or bureaucratic slow-walking of overflight permissions, it could deepen the airline’s financial plight.
Ruto has done little to distance himself from RSF Commander Mohamed Hemedti who is indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. To compound matters, Ruto’s former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, has accused Ruto of laundering gold for RSF and supplying the group weapons—creating a diplomatic hurdle for the airline which is seen as an extension of the Kenyan government.
From this hodgepodge, KQ may be to the Sudan Armed Forces what RwandAir is to Kinshasa: a symbol of a meddling neighbour. In spite of the partial reopening of Sudanese airspace, aviation authorities have warned against flying over Sudan at all altitudes due to the ongoing conflict and the risk from anti-aircraft weaponry.
For Kenya’s southern neighbour Tanzania, the two countries’ aviation fights have mirrored their trade squabbles which often involve poultry, maize and wildlife. Tanzania suspended KQ flights to Dar es Salaam in early 2024 after accusing Kenya of blocking its own carrier, Air Tanzania, for rejecting all cargo flight operations between Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam.
Tanzania said Kenya’s move contravened an MoU on air services between the two countries signed in 2016. Although the spat was resolved, industry analysts slammed the nature of disagreement as a sign of how difficult aviation planning is in East Africa.
They contrasted it with Ethiopia Airline’s quiet diplomacy as opposed to public retaliation that unnerves customers and investors. An example of the airline’s aviation diplomacy happened recently when a reported plan by Russia to lease planes from Ethiopian Airlines leaked. The deal fell through after the Ethiopian carrier weighed the risks of U.S. sanctions.
A Russian delegation led by Trade Commissioner Yaroslav V. Tarasyuk met with Ethiopia’s Civil Aviation Authority (ECAA) in late July. They sought to lease Western-built aircraft from ET to operate under an aircraft, crews, insurance, and maintenance (ACIM) leasing.
Ethiopian Airlines CEO Mesfin Tasew publicly denied any agreement was reached or that substantive negotiations had taken place. Tasew emphasised the airline’s commitment to international law and its strong operational and commercial ties with the United States. Russia was sanctioned by the U.S. following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the decision has been detrimental to Russian aviation.
The constant whir of geopolitical shifts makes even the most agile carriers vulnerable to mundane business dealings.
A Flightrada24 path showing KQ’s journey from Nairobi skirting Sudan via seven African countries en route to Amsterdam.
ET, Africa’s alpha carrier, has had its fair share of snags not least from the conflict in Sudan. The re-routes around Sudanese airspace have increased its operational costs even as it remains the most profitable airline on the continent.
The Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia from 2020-2022 also triggered unease from Western capitals. The U.S. and EU slapped sanctions on Ethiopian figures as the country suppressed the Tigray revolt creating spillover effects towards ET which is inextricably tied to the Ethiopian government.
ET’s paradox
Ethiopia’s status as a landlocked country has been referred to as a “geopolitical airspace paradox” by Solomon Gurmu Beka, an aviation analyst, in an article in the Addis Standard. “Ethiopia, the oldest independent nation in Africa, faces a unique geopolitical challenge: beyond being landlocked, it is functionally airspace-locked due to dependence on neighboring countries for international air transit.”
Beka wrote that any geopolitical conflict, diplomatic fallout, or instability could result in airspace restrictions, dramatically impacting Ethiopia’s aviation network. But what it lacks in airspace access, it makes up for in size and revenue. The airline posted $7.6 billion in revenue for FY 2024/2025 cementing its position as the most successful carrier on the continent.
With its hub at Addis Ababa Bole airport and 140+ aircraft, ET has maintained dominance over trunk routes giving it an edge over regional airlines which have less than half its fleet size.
The airspace disputes between Somalia and Kenya have also been another source of turbulence for airlines like Kenya Airways. The dispute is closely linked to the long-running maritime boundary dispute over a 100,000 square-kilometer area in the Indian Ocean, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas.
The impasse led Kenya to suspend all commercial flights to Mogadishu in 2021 and missed out on an opportunity to tap into passenger traffic to the Horn of Africa country for diplomatic and humanitarian work.
By the time KQ flights resumed to Mogadishu in 2024, Uganda Airlines had established a presence on the route with four weekly flights. Despite its security challenges, Somalia is emerging as an airspace hub because of its strategic location.
Qatar Airways flies to Mogadishu in tagged flights from neighbouring Djibouti to optimise connectivity to Asia, Australia and Europe. The mishaps in East African skies are not helped by the fact that Gulf carriers like Emirates, Qatar, and European-Turkish Airlines dominate regional connections.
As a result, RwandAir struck a partnership with Qatar Airways where the latter is meant to acquire a 49% stake in the Rwandan airline. But the negotiations have dragged on for years and throttled the airline’s ambitions.
The partnership is meant to provide RwandAir with a major financial injection and access to Qatar Airways’ expertise in airline management, fleet planning, and global network strategy.
This deal is seen as a way for Qatar to establish a stronger foothold in the growing African aviation market, particularly in East and Central Africa. Qatar Airways also agreed to take a 60% stake in the under construction-Bugesera International Airport project in Kigali. Qatar Airways did not respond to requests for comment.
Uganda Airlines is learning from its peers. It hired an aviation consultant Torkel Waak, MD of Pilot Care, to assist in its search for a new Head of Flight Operations. The airline has navigated political and economic turbulence. It has faced public and parliamentary scrutiny over its management and financial performance. There have been investigations into operational irregularities and political interference in the airline’s governance, which critics say has undermined its efficiency.
SAATM
Uganda has Bilateral Air Service Agreements (BASAs) with 56 countries according to the Uganda Civil Aviation Authority but the country is not party to arguably the most important aviation agreement: the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM)—a flagship initiative under the African Union’s Agenda 2063, meant to bring down fares, expand routes and tap into the continent’s underserved markets. Minister of Transport Gen. Katumba Wamala could not be reached for comment on the matter.
Kenya, Rwanda, DRC, and Ethiopia are part of the SAATM. Ethiopian Airlines CEO Mesfin Tasew strongly backs the agreement. Effective implementation is stymied by protectionism, poor infrastructure and rigid visa policies among the 34 countries that have signed it. Others simply won’t touch it saying the agreement will benefit Ethiopian Airlines.
This inertia has earned African leaders criticism. “That does not require money, does not require infrastructure; it requires someone to make a decision which allows the aviation market to work,” said Donald Kaberuka, former president of the African Development Bank, and a respected voice on development matters at an event marking the release of the Africa Infrastructure Report 2025.
A survey by the International Air Transport Association (IATA); the trade association for the world’s airlines—representing some 350 airlines over 80% of global air traffic, suggests that if just 12 key Africa countries opened their markets and increased connectivity, an extra 155,000 jobs and US$1.3 billion in annual GDP would be created in those countries.
The SAATM has been billed as a solution to the prohibitively expensive Entebbe-Nairobi flight. At the time of filing this story, the KQ fare for the 50 minute roundtrip was ranging from $530- $615. A Uganda Airlines ticket was not far behind selling at $507 and upwards.
An estimated 60% of the ticket cost is about taxes, government fees and a fuel surcharge. The East African Community (EAC) Common Market Protocol that stipulates free movement of people and goods has done little to lower air travel costs. Each country is happy to implement its own tax and fee structure leaving travellers to bear the costs of regional hops.
In spite of Uganda Airlines breaking the monopoly of the route, KQ is said to hold pricing power because of the several onward connections beyond Nairobi. RwandAir has essentially used the same playbook on Entebbe-Kigali since Uganda Airlines does not ply the route. Tickets were going as high as $1025 for a 45 minute flight creating further fragmentation in East Africa.
By The Independent
